Firstly - The average market behavior is average.

From experience, most people could not imagine anything of what was predicted, would come true. There is a large … debt of intellectual work that is being underwritten, allowing people to sell narratives which do not correspond to reality.

This is a direct result of a captured, unfair information environment.

As a result, the average behavior of the market is not pricing in these things, even if the plans were made clear.

And even the erratic government reactions to the pandemic was not entirely unpredictable either to be fair.

While people felt that polls indicated a Harris victory and the margin of Trump's win was a surprise and a failure of forecasters, in reality it was always a toss-up in forecasts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for...