All that said, my slightly informed mildly-hysterical opinion is that aggregate downside risk is absolutely out of control in the markets right now. Valuations of basically everything are at all time highs relative to production. Volatilities are high. And non-economic risks are off the charts.

Basically, everyone is placing too many bets. AI stocks are bets, sure. VCs have too much money in play. Datacenter spending is a giant bet.

But the Trump administration is also placing bets on world trade markets, expecting to win the trade wars it keeps provoking. Likewise it's betting on US labor stability with mass deportations, and now para-sorta-maybe-martial-law decrees. I mean, let's be honest: the risk of a general strike in the USA is probably higher now than at any point in the last century.

Oh, and Russia seems about to hit a tipping point in its refining capacity, which says dark things about Europe too if that goes awry.

Basically most of these look "not really that scary" from a fundamentals perspective. But what are the chances we make it through the next 9-12 months with none of them having gone sour? And any of them could be the trigger for a real market crash!

I'm moving almost everything out of volatiles, personally. The loss of the next 10-20% of upside seems like a good bet vs. what-maybe-50%-or-more downside.