>It's a US/China centered article, because that's the game

The game seems to be everyone else waiting for the R&D money to provide us amazing open source models, and then just run those locally.

I read your article.

My cynical take is that this is the US committing economic suicide, based on a misguided belief in something that'll never happen.

The new superpowers will be the EU, which was smart enough not to make the same gamble, and China, which will structurally survive it.

I also disagree with your conclusion of a moral imperative to make sure that AI succeeds. I believe it's the opposite. AI failing would finally create the long-needed revolutionary moment to throw off the shackles of the oligarchy that got us into this mess in the first place.

> The new superpowers will be the EU

Not with how much pulling teeth is required to get them to invest in defense. I don't see how you can unironically make the claim that a written down investment would sink the ship that is the US economy.

The EU moves slowly, but is unstoppable once in motion.

A written down investment thats four times the size of the mortgage crisis.

I assure you, this is not a game where “the only winning move is not to play”, in spite of whatever your domestic politicians are feeding the population.

Are you sure? Based on what? All I see is people desperately throwing money they don't have at AI like a gambling addict who just converted their child's college fund into chips.

Call me a buzzkill here, but my bet is you aren't gonna hit it big. While you can win at the casino, that requires a careful plan with contingency solutions, which AI simply does not have. Realistically speaking, it is indeed best to just not play this game; you are just digging a deeper hole.

I think you missed the point. The EU is "winning by doing nothing" whereas the US is liable for the huge failing investment it made. US economical growth is now entirely reliant on AI, so an AI crash guarantees immediate recession and out-of-control stagflation. The EU with its "less advanced" economy will keep growing just fine with or without AI, surviving the front-line bloodbath by staying behind.

As for defense, they are spending exactly as much as necessary at each point in time: just enough to keep credible US backing until 2025, and as much as they can without destroying their economy since. There is no good argument for an irresponsible spending spree, as the only powers that can realistically challenge the EU without triggering nuclear holocaust are the US and China anyways (Russia don't stand a chance).

I don't see odds on a good outcome from a revolution. Keep in mind which faction in the united states is generally militant. The best possible scenario there is broad civilian unrest that the administration tries to forcefully quell, triggering a military coup, but it's unlikely that the coup would be unified, and right wing militias and hardcore trump supports would go down fighting.

We need political Aikido to hold this country together.