We knew about these dependencies since around 2014, definitely it was known during Trump 1, that America still hasn’t bothered getting its own rare earth refining up (the elements themselves aren’t that rare) is just bizarre, but private enterprise has continuously scoffed at doing it given the cheap prices the Chinese offered us.

Yes. There was a rare earth glut in 2015, when the China price went way down. Mountain Pass CA mine shut down. Molycorp went bankrupt. MP Minerals now owns that mine, and claims to have ore to magnet capability, although not at full capacity. They've been sending ore to China for refining. Now that has to stop.

There are four steps:

- Mining.

- Beneficiation - raw dirt goes in, most of the uninteresting dirt is removed, low grade ore comes out. Mostly a mechanical process. Done at the mining site. Biggest problem is getting rid of the waste. Mountain Pass pipes it to Nevada. Really.

- Separation - low-grade ore goes in, and the various elements are separated out. Usually separate from the mine site. Currently China has over 80% of the capacity for this step. US capability in this area is weak. MP Minerals has a pilot plant. So does a startup, Ucore.[1] They claim to be scaling up. Total investment in Ucore seems to be about $55 million, which is small for the importance of this business.

- Smelting and magnet making - MP Minerals has a modest plant in an industrial park in Texas.

The US military demand for rare earths probably isn't that high compared to consumer demand.

Nobody wants to overspend, because the last two times rare earth producers overspent, the price crashed and many players went bust. The problem with this industry is price volatility vs large fixed capital expenditures. Now pricing, subsidies, and export controls are so political that volatility is worse.

[1] https://www.metaltechnews.com/story/2024/09/18/mining-tech/t...