Re:Earth was born dry until a cosmic collision made it a blu...
by antonvs on Sunday October 05, 2025 @09:18AM
(#45481280)
> star too bright but with a hot Jupiter tidally locked in front of your moon, shielding it
It seems unlikely that such exceptions would amount to more than part of a reasonable margin of error.
Re:Earth was born dry until a cosmic collision made it a blu...
by raverbashing on Sunday October 05, 2025 @11:35AM
(#45482329)
It is very likely that Earth itself is the exception of the exception and is part of a "margin of error"
The fundamental problem with the Drake equation is that it's frequentist, not Bayesian
Hence why you get too high sensitivity to parameters you have no way of having an estimate with a small margin of error
We "don't care" about how many civilisations are out there, we care to the point where we can interact with them.
As mentioned, it has several assumptions. "Rate of birth of sun like stars" means nothing. You can "always" have an exception for life that will throw the data off: "star too bright but with a hot Jupiter tidally locked in front of your moon, shielding it" etc