Right now I kind of land on the side of "Where is all the shovelware?". If AI is such a huge productivity boost for developers, where is all the software those developers are supposedly writing[3]? But this is just a microcosm of a bigger question. Almost all the economic growth since the AI boom started has been in AI companies. If AI is revolutionizing multiple fields, why aren't relevant companies those fields also growing at above-expected rates? Where's all this productivity that AI is supposedly unlocking?
[1] https://hms.harvard.edu/news/does-ai-help-or-hurt-human-radi...
[2] https://www.ajronline.org/doi/10.2214/AJR.24.31493
[3] https://mikelovesrobots.substack.com/p/wheres-the-shovelware...
Of course i agree ML has already helped in many other areas and has a bright future. But the thing everyone is talking about here are LLM's
Even if AI somehow bucks the trend and stops advancing in leaps? It's still on track to be the most impactful technology since smartphones, if not since the Internet itself. And the likes of Nvidia? They're the Cisco of AI infrastructure.
AI is here to stay, but the question is whether the players can accurately forecast the growth rate, or get too far ahead of it and get financially burnt.
The real question is what are we gonna do with all this cheap GPU compute when the bubble pops! Will high def game streaming finally have its time to shine? Will VFX outsource all of its render to the cloud? Will it meet the VR/AR hardware improvements in time to finally push the tech mainstream? Will it all just get re-routed back to crypto? Will someone come up with a more useful application of GPU compute?