Theres the little matter of the US imposed Plaza Accords that have been skipped in the timeline there , which are widely acknowledged to have precipitated Japan's lost decades.

> Theres the little matter of the US imposed Plaza Accords that have been skipped in the timeline there , which are widely acknowledged to have precipitated Japan's lost decades.

Actually, no. The CPC generally argues this is the case, but it is largely incorrect. Japan responded to the Plaza accords by attempting to massively increase stimulus and preserve the structure (significant industrial, limited service/consumption economy) they started.

In contrast, (West) Germany kept the stimulus relatively low and rotated into higher productivity enterprises and R&D and had a substantially lessened impact. See this (https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/125961733.pdf)

The whole "US destroyed Japan with the Plaza accords" is basically CPC propaganda.

China will have its own issues, but I would guess they look more like the 1992 sterling crisis where China cannot hold its yuan peg as it continues to have trade expansion without corresponding foreign exchange growth.

The main difference I'd say with China is population. They have 5x the people of the US and that just gives them a massive advantage. They also have the authoritarian government that's able to have a consistent focus on a mercanalist vision. They also have a large enough domestic market to develop technology.

The US is in serious trouble. If you don't believe trump has already done irreversible damage, he will soon.

> They have 5x the people

For now. China is on a timer, though. Demographic collapse will be pretty extreme.

Americans are both having more children and large numbers of immigrants.

Not old enough, but am hearing about imminent collapse of China for 20 years and it is growing during this period in every measurable way.

China has collapsed multiple times: in 1967, 1960, 1937, 1916, 1856, and so on. Another collapse probably isn't imminent but based on historical patterns it's entirely possible in our lifetimes. There could be an external shock in terms of a severe disruption in food or energy imports, or an internal power struggle between CCP factions. And even if China doesn't exactly collapse, a slow stagnation like what happened to Japan after 1992 is quite possible.