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A comment on Recession Probability Surges to 93%: UBS. Parent comment

Re:Recession Probability Surges to 93%: UBS by elcritch on Tuesday September 16, 2025 @02:24PM (#45265910)
It seems betting markets are now allowed in the US? I keep seeing advertisements for them. They'd be an awesome tool for this stuff.

Edit: there's one open bet on a US recession in 2025 on Kalshi that's gone down to only a 5% chance. Sort of fascinating how it's exact opposite of what TFA is saying. I'd link but not sure if that's kosher.

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Re:Recession Probability Surges to 93%: UBS by protimewaster on Tuesday September 16, 2025 @03:11PM (#45266558)
The betting markets are all betting based on whether the US with announce that it's in a recession (I think), which probably has different (lower) odds than actually being in a recession. It at least makes sense that it's different, but that's a huge difference.

I guess it's kinda like betting on who will win an election vs. betting on a candidate conceding an election. The odds aren't necessarily the same, even though they're (on paper) closely related events.

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Re:Recession Probability Surges to 93%: UBS by bandyaboot on Tuesday September 16, 2025 @06:29PM (#45269082)
Is there one for 2026? I’m guessing if there is you’ll see one trending down while the other is trending up, for obvious reasons.
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