> Lived in a world where
Well, a country where. But sure; I catch your meaning.
> and negligible impact on the minds of those who do
Agree to disagree. The President of the United States broke the news of his death; he had the ear of politically powerful people in the US.
> his words should have made him no more likely to die than anyone else driving on the same road
Agreed. No likelier than any other American. But, that's way too damn likely.
> Except for the fact that the road is supposed to be analogous to the shooter, who in reality had consciousness and a motive.
Ah. Here's the issue.
While every individual shooter has a motive (or not; my relative was shot by someone suffering a psychotic break), the system makes it more likely Americans will get shot than their neighbors in other countries. America, specifically, has a dangerous mix of too many guns and too much distress. That's not really disputable without just ignoring the statistics.
And Kirk was fine with that. Well, fine enough to think the current balance of gun ownership was correct. Perhaps he advocated for better mental healthv support or more financial equality, to address the distress? I may have missed it. Never heard it if he did.
It's not acceptable he was shot. But Kirk accepted that someone gets shot his whole public life. He argued, vociferously and frequently, that some people were just going to die and that was the price of freedom.
Was he right?
I wouldn't put 'high probability' money on a <2% probability event, but I would not be surprised by it.
No, no, and no. I already explained this very clearly.
Why are you choosing this semantic hill to fortify? What value does it bring?
No, I have not. There are plenty of situations in which something can be called a predictable consequence, and where doing so is useful.
> Why are you choosing this semantic hill to fortify? What value does it bring?
It brings the value of clear communication, and respect for the English language. I believe strongly that words should have a coherent meaning.
In English?
I think we've found the core philosophical disagreement that makes it unlikely we will see eye-to-eye.
You are quite clearly understanding everything that I'm saying[1], but I'll bite.
What sequence of characters would be 'the proper English' that I should use to describe the scenarios that I've presented in a parent post?
Be sure to be clear, unambiguous, and concise.
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[1] s/saying/writing/g
"Predictable" requires: "could a reasonable person have held a high prior probability of that man, specifically, dying in this manner?"
No.
The definition of "consequence" is conflated. The motte is "the conditions increased the probability of the event". The bailey is something like "the event follows from the conditions due to moral law". For example, when people speak of "consequences" for a crime, they refer to punishment.
If we reflect the analogy back onto the original case, we're talking about situation in which our anti-road-salt activist lived in a world where the roads were already not salted, and had no direct control over that policy and negligible impact on the minds of those who do. Further, his words should have made him no more likely to die than anyone else driving on the same road. Except for the fact that the road is supposed to be analogous to the shooter, who in reality had consciousness and a motive.