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Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by rsynnott on Thursday September 04, 2025 @04:01AM (#45124829)
If (a) companies lay too many people off because the magic robots will make engineers unnecessary and (b) the pipeline collapses, because being a software engineer is an undesirable career because it is being replaced by robots and (c) it emerges that the robots are kinda bullshit, then there's going to be one hell of a shortage.

When I started a CS degree in 2003, we were still kinda in the "dot com crash has happened, no-one will ever hire a programmer again" phase, and there were about 50 people in my starting class. I think in the same course two years ago, there'd been about 200. The 'correct' number, for actual future demand, was certainly closer to 200 than 50, and the industry as a whole had a bit of a labour crunch in the early 10s in particular.

Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by InsideOutSanta on Thursday September 04, 2025 @05:34AM (#45125348)
I believe we are vastly underestimating the number of programmers needed, as some companies reap unusually high rewards from hiring programmers. Companies like Google can pay huge sums of money to programmers because they make even higher sums of money from the programmer's work.

This means that they inflate programmer salaries, which makes it impossible for most companies that could benefit from software development to hire developers.

We could probably have five times as many software developers as we have now, and they would not be out of work; they would only decrease average salaries for programmers.

Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by camdenreslink on Thursday September 04, 2025 @07:40AM (#45126143)
If a company could benefit from software developers but can’t afford them, then they can purchase Saas offerings written by companies that can afford developers. I don’t think we’ve run out of opportunities to improve the business world with software quite yet.
Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by InsideOutSanta on Thursday September 04, 2025 @08:30AM (#45126511)
The fact that there is a market for these products, but they are almost universally terrible, supports my point.
Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by phatskat on Friday September 05, 2025 @12:14PM (#45140238)
But if only Google or similarly sized companies can pay that well, and there’s tons of programmers, obviously the average salary will balance out lower than what Google pay but will still be competitive to the thousands of programmers who didn’t get hired at Google.
Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by roncesvalles on Sunday September 07, 2025 @07:42AM (#45157341)
>but will still be competitive to the thousands of programmers who didn’t get hired at Google

Why would this be the case? Many programmers join Google or Meta (or similar tier companies) and immediately double or triple their income. Software salaries are famously bimodal and people often transition from the lower mode to the higher mode practically overnight.

In fact (and I'm not an economist) I conjecture that the lower mode exists because the upper mode exists. That is, people purposefully don't really care what their salary is (i.e. don't put upward wage pressure) when they're at lower-mode companies because they know one day they'll make the leap to the upper-mode. In other words, the fact that Google-tier companies pay well allows other companies to pay poorly because those guys are just padding their resumes to get a 350k job at Google and don't really care whether Bank of Nowhere pays them $90k or $110k.

Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by chipsrafferty on Monday September 08, 2025 @02:13PM (#45171783)
People absolutely do care what their salary is. And most people never work at Google...
Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by roncesvalles on Wednesday September 10, 2025 @05:11PM (#45203795)
Well clearly not enough to make the two modes meet.
Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by chipsrafferty on Monday September 08, 2025 @02:11PM (#45171759)
You could make this argument about almost literally every field.
Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by DrillShopper on Thursday September 04, 2025 @09:10AM (#45126870)
Holding on for that sweet sweet pay bump after the coming AI winter
Re:Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up by osigurdson on Thursday September 04, 2025 @09:19AM (#45126962)
I think it might be worse that that as staff reductions are across the board, not just in software development roles. My hope is start up creation will be unprecedented to take advantage of the complacency. They will wonder why AI deleted their customers when they thought it was supposed to delete their employees.