This doesn’t really make sense. Everyone thought Russia would mop up Ukraine in a week. Turns out it was wrong because Russian military was weaker than they thought, Ukraine response was strong, etc. but this is just a hindsight 20/20 thing. Any country could make such a mistake.

And you say fragile, scared, etc. Countries, especially large countries, don’t operate like that. They had security concerns, which they publicly warned about for months, and then they attacked.