Sure; the evidence is pretty low tech. Between us we can remember the interviews of all the most successful startups, and in no case there was any debate about whether we should fund them.

Home runs are so rare that it's not a matter of percentage per batch. A batch will have 1 or 0, and probably 0. It will be a few years before I can tell if the rate is increasing.

Selecting winners and weeding out losers seem the same thing to me. There are companies we think will almost certainly fail, but we can never be sure. An ineffectual person would be least likely to succeed as a startup founder.