Even founders of consumer startups are way less cool per dollar than actors. I'd guess Larry & Sergey are about as famous to the general public as actors whose net worth is 1000x smaller.

actually, it appears to be a good strong argument. I can't say for sure. it's not totally clear to me as I don't know a damn thing about statistics and as far as I remember a median was a type of average. iirc median represents absolute middle; by average you probably mean mean average.

I really have no idea what you're saying, so I have no answer. unless you're making an argument for becoming a serial entrepreneur, since you'll probably have a startup which succeeds sooner or later, if you start young enough. that must be what you're saying, five fails in a row won't matter if number six is a win, and on average, it probably will be.

that's easy to shoot down, though. first of all you might need a lot more than six to beat the averages. second and more importantly: this post was a response to a specific person and that specific person is very probably still in college. I believe he has not created any startups yet. I could be wrong but I am very confident in this particular hunch. his next startup will very probably be his first, so the chance that it will fail remains very very high, since the averages are currently against him.

So no, I don't think that is my mistake at all. I think the mistake would be on the part of anybody attempting to over-generalize, from my specific answer to a specific person, to learn broader lessons for the startup and aspiring-startup communities. but I didn't post this here. that might have been a mistake, but it wasn't mine.

the specific person I'm responding to, OK - he can say "but my other startup might succeed." he'd have me there, maybe. but my reasons for believing his startup will fail, I think it's fair to assume that means his next startup, which will be his first, and could be his only. so yeah, my logic holds.

boo yah.

I appreciate having to work for that, though.