Re:Why Are There So Many Rationalist Cults?
by Viliam1234 on Wednesday August 13, 2025 @07:05PM
(#44894929)
> I imagine having premises and thinking it through has a better track record of reaching conclusions consistent with reality.
You only need to make one mistake in the entire chain of reasoning to get a wrong result.
Mathematically speaking, if your total probability of making even one mistake somewhere in the chain is 50% or greater, the result is still a coinflip.
Success is a combination of reducing your error rate, keeping your chains of reasoning short, and verifying the intermediate results empirically.
You only need to make one mistake in the entire chain of reasoning to get a wrong result.
Mathematically speaking, if your total probability of making even one mistake somewhere in the chain is 50% or greater, the result is still a coinflip.
Success is a combination of reducing your error rate, keeping your chains of reasoning short, and verifying the intermediate results empirically.