> I don’t think it’s just (or even particularly) bad axioms, I think it’s that people tend to build up “logical” conclusions where they think each step is a watertight necessity that follows inevitably from its antecedents, but actually each step is a little bit leaky, leading to runaway growth in false confidence.

I really like your way of putting it. It’s a fundamental fallacy to assume certainty when trying to predict the future. Because, as you say, uncertainty compounds over time, all prediction models are chaotic. It’s usually associated with some form of Dunning-Kruger, where people know just enough to have ideas but not enough to understand where they might fail (thus vastly underestimating uncertainty at each step), or just lacking imagination.