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Re:Why Are There So Many Rationalist Cults? by lordnacho on Tuesday August 12, 2025 @01:43PM (#44879571)
> I immediately become suspicious of anyone who is very certain of something

Me too, in almost every area of life. There's a reason it's called a conman: they are tricking your natural sense that confidence is connected to correctness.

But also, even when it isn't about conning you, how do people become certain of something? They ignored the evidence against whatever they are certain of.

People who actually know what they're talking about will always restrict the context and hedge their bets. Their explanation are tentative, filled with ifs and buts. They rarely say anything sweeping.

Re:Why Are There So Many Rationalist Cults? by dcminter on Tuesday August 12, 2025 @02:37PM (#44880175)
In the term "conman" the confidence in question is that of the mark, not the perpetrator.
Re:Why Are There So Many Rationalist Cults? by sdwr on Tuesday August 12, 2025 @02:55PM (#44880390)
Isn't confidence referring to the alternate definition of trust, as in "taking you into his confidence"?
Re:Why Are There So Many Rationalist Cults? by godelski on Tuesday August 12, 2025 @03:43PM (#44881006)
I think if you used that definition you could equally say "it is the mark that is taking the conman into [the mark's] confidence"
Re:Why Are There So Many Rationalist Cults? by yunwal on Wednesday August 13, 2025 @12:17AM (#44884603)
> how do people become certain of something?

They see the same pattern repeatedly until it becomes the only reasonable explanation? I’m certain about the theory of gravity because every time I drop an object it falls to the ground with a constant acceleration.