These are exactly the people that are going to stay, medium term.
Let's explore a fictional example that somewhat resembles my, and I suspect a lot of peoples current dayjob.
A Micro-Service architecture, each team administers 5-10 services and the whole application, which is once again only a small part of the platform as a whole is developed by maybe 100-200 devs. So something like ~200 micro services
The application architects are gonna be completely save in their jobs. And so are the lead devs in each team - at least from my perspective. Anyone else? I suspect MBAs in 5 yrs will not see their value anymore. That's gonna be the vast majority of all devs, that's likely going to cost 50% of the devs their jobs. And middle management will be slimmed down just as quickly, because you suddenly need a lot less managers.
tl;dr: in the future when vibe coding works 100% of the time, logically the only companies that will exist are the ones that have processes that AI can’t do, because all the other parts of the supply chain can all be done in-house
It's conceivable that thats going to happen, eventually. but that'd likely require models a lot more advanced to what we have now.
The agent approach with lead devs administering and merging the code the agents made is feasible with today's models. The missing part is the tooling around the models and the development practices that that standardizes this workflow.
That's what I'd expect to take around 5 yrs to settle.
I don't buy that. The linked article makes a solid argument for why that's not likely to happen: agentic loop coding tools like Claude Code can speed up the "writing code and getting it working" piece, but the software development lifecycle has so much other work before you get to the "and now we let Claude Code go brrrrrrr" phase.