Come on, be serious. The IMF doesn't break anyone's legs. The worst they can do is refuse to loan you any more money. Any sovereign state is free to balance their own budget and tell the IMF to GTFO.

This is currently more or less true, but historically speaking, sovereign default has often been used as a casus belli for invasion; that's where the Monroe doctrine comes from, after all. The collapsing Pax Americana is arguably the reason we haven't seen it happen in decades, so it would be unsurprising to see it start to happen again.

And of course financial considerations are often a first-order consideration in military conflict even today.

That most counties need to import oil and gas to keep the lights on and industry functioning means you don't need to send gunboats of yore. See Smedley Butler's rant. Now when they get in a pickle they need foreign currency. And that's how they get ya.

Renewables however flips things back.

That's an excellent point, and one I hadn't really internalized. Thank you.

Instructive to read up on the 2022 Sri Lanka protests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Sri_Lankan_protests

Debt crisis and sharp spikes in fuel and oil costs resulted in shortages of both. Also shortages of fertilizer. Which resulted in shortages of food.

If I was a Sri Lankan politician I wouldn't want a repeat of that.

The Sri Lankan politicians like "Mr. 10%" were largely in it for the gift. The debt crisis could have been prevented if they followed IMF recommendations in the first place.