(I'm also carefully going through the possible reasons why upvotes on cmmnts on HN should be secret but while downvotes are almost not at all ;)

Ignoring ftm the not too interesting clusters of "prophet at home"+"hermit no-one will admit they take seriously" ideas:

-I assumed when Paul says "Republicans" he always means the guys in the Inner (& some portion* of Outer) Party.

-In my not even half baked model it's an inverted pyramid where the anti-intellectual/anti-institution ("subaltern") swing-voter base is sovereign

-Trump can go full subaltern because the guys (right+center+epsilon) that sincerely believe in (the sanctity of) the Institution "know" that It cannot be touched

-check with the very short list of "talk left walk left" historical examples, and see why no uh party member believes that "talk left smash everything" could happen -- that's way too subaltern for a moneyed dude.. and well it doesn't (not in any meaningful way-- he can't touch the Fed?)

-you may still handwave that perceptions are everything

-or you can help with baking the model (eg *what portion)