The fact of nukes is that they are both a get out of international jail free card and security against existential threat.

Previous decade arms control understood this, and understood something very valuable needed to be offered to keep countries from pursuing them.

Current nuclear arms control is failing (Iran, North Korea) because the international community is pretending they aren't worth pursuing at almost any cost.

If a country wants to pursue a foreign policy antagonistic or counter to the US, they'd be insane not to develop nuclear weapons.