Makridakis' conclusion remained true for many years: "statistically sophisticated and complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones."
Re:Zero-Shot Forecasting: Our Search for a Time-Series Found...
by parmesant on Friday June 13, 2025 @08:03AM
(#44267760)
This looks like a great benchmark! We've been thinking of doing a better and more detailed follow-up and this seems like the perfect dataset to do that with. Thanks!
https://github.com/Mcompetitions/M4-methods
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makridakis_Competitions
Makridakis' conclusion remained true for many years: "statistically sophisticated and complex methods do not necessarily provide more accurate forecasts than simpler ones."
Maybe things have changed?
(side: Nixtla showed a simple ensemble outperforming Chronos, and the Chronos team responded, but there's some back and forth in the comments: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/extended-comparison-chronos-a...)