Re:Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025
by linearithmic on Monday June 02, 2025 @12:53PM
(#44160767)
I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.
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Re:Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025
by NunoSempere on Monday June 02, 2025 @01:01PM
(#44160875)
I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot. For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear for Russian ones, but my guess is it's not too far off. This source (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-...) says $2B for the planes alone, but then you also had the airbases &c, and maybe a submarine base <https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian...>. I'd still expect it to be a bit exaggerated for propaganda effects, but it does seem reasonable all in all.
Re:Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025
by linearithmic on Monday June 02, 2025 @01:08PM
(#44160953)
Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.
Re:Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025
by AnimalMuppet on Monday June 02, 2025 @01:18PM
(#44161033)
The explosions seem to have blown one wing off of the planes. That's not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild. I suspect that it's a factory-only level of rebuild, but I don't actually know.
It's at least months to years before they're operation again, or years to decades until the factory can make that many new ones.
Re:Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025
by NunoSempere on Monday June 02, 2025 @01:45PM
(#44161278)
> not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild
> months to years before they're operation again
Good point!