Sort of both. I believe there are massive polarized forces that invest heavily in understanding and gaming the system. Sort of like a big multi-player game of tug of war .

The system must be understandable or people wouldn't incorporate and collaborate on extracting an edge. Slack in the system represents a lower price point, which will be corrected by a corresponding purchase order.

An individual has an effect, but it's miniscule compared to the massive forces in play. Unless you have a TRULY novel analysis of a situation, you are going to have a very low probability, success rate and out competing the market.