> And you DO see companies laying off people in large numbers fairly regularly.

Sure but, so far, too regularly to be AI-gains-driven (at least in software). We have some data on software job postings and the job apocalypse, and corresponding layoffs, coincided with the end of ultra-low interest rates. If AI had a recent effect this year or last, its quite tiny in comparison.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr

so one can argue more is to come, but its hard to see how its had a real effect on jobs/layoffs thus far.