I guess it increases your shots if the company is actively hiring. I can't speak to others, but that is actually how I and some of my friends land remote jobs, just by cold applying. And you get more chance if you apply early as soon as the post is up the first day or two.

Of course, as you said, it is more effective if you have connections or have gotten cold outreach by recruiters. But my point is that cold applying still works and quite some folks land their jobs this way.