Re:A Mutual Fund Master, Too Worried to Rest
by rogerbinns on Thursday August 16, 2012 @04:36PM
(#4393524)
> I feel that a smart and tasteful person can outguess Wall Street in areas he's an expert in
The problem is telling the difference between luck and skill. It is very rare to have a sustained period of getting things right. And survivorship bias muddies things even further http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Here is an (illegal) way of appearing to have skill. Send a newsletter to a large number of people telling half things will go up and telling half things will go down. Then send the next newsletter to the half you were right about. Rinse and repeat. To the group you are still sending several newsletters later you'll look like a genius with an incredible string of correct insights/predictions.
The problem is telling the difference between luck and skill. It is very rare to have a sustained period of getting things right. And survivorship bias muddies things even further http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Here is an (illegal) way of appearing to have skill. Send a newsletter to a large number of people telling half things will go up and telling half things will go down. Then send the next newsletter to the half you were right about. Rinse and repeat. To the group you are still sending several newsletters later you'll look like a genius with an incredible string of correct insights/predictions.