Edit; asking Mom for permission to beat up your brother?

Pakistan has built close ties with Turkiye as well to provide a redundancy along with spare parts for older American/NATO weaponry, along with some leverage when dealing with the Chinese.

If anyone has the power to force both to the negotiating table, it's the UAE and KSA due economic and military ties with India and Pakistan. It was both that negotiated the ceasefire that went in flames after Pehalgam - not the US nor China, plus India views China as a direct adversary.

China has been building Chinese-only gated company towns in Pakistani military properties for a couple of years now.

Most of the Chinese investment in PK is in Balochistan which falls under the Balochistan Corps, which is somewhat independent/left to it's own means by Islamabad.

And Pakistan's armed forces relies an equal amount on Turkiye, as a number of Pakistan's critical weapons platforms such as the F-16 require servicing, and Turkiye is the primary source for non-US replacements for NATO parts due to their own attempts at indigenization during the 2010s.

As I mentioned somewhere on HN, I recommend reading Ayesha Siddiqui's research into the Pakistani Armed Forces.

OK. Now I'm a bit skeptical as well.

I mean, the Chinese have been building Chinese-only gated company towns in [insert global south nation here] military [and everywhere else] properties for a long time now. Not really sure how that translates into Chinese authoritative decision making in matters of wars between nations?

For that you need massive financial underwriting of a military. Far greater than 50%. No disrespect to the Chinese, but I'm sorry, there is no nation in the world where a few gated communities will get you that level of influence. I don't care how important you think you are.

Usually it is the US influencing small countries and having a say in military decisions. Also coming up next is a full blown Chinese military base in Gwadar, something the USSR broke itself trying to get to.

> Far greater than 50%.

If you want to go with the stick yes. For the carrot, it's a bit different, you just have to dangle it. If China says jump, Pakistan will ask how high.

Again, no matter how important you think you are, you’ll need to do a whole lot more than dangle carrots to get that level of influence nowadays. There’s just too many power players for small nations to not play one against the other.

> Overstates the power China has over the Pakistani Military.

And unironically follow that up with

> If anyone has the power to force both to the negotiating table, it's the UAE and KSA

The idea that UAE and KSA have the power to force India is plainly ridiculous.

I and a lot of other people have been calling "India and Pakistan get into it again" ever since Russia started blowing up Ukranian maternity wards, supermarkets and apartment buildings.

Ukraine is bleeding Europe and the US dry in both money and military supplies.

The US just emptied even more munitions at the Houthis (largely accomplishing nothing) to the point that people in the Pentagon have been concerned enough to approach press. The regime also moved carrier groups closer to Yemen to support said operation, so of course now that mom and dad are looking away, the two children are fighting. Meanwhile Hegseth has been hard at work causing complete chaos with an endless stream of junior-manager "get tough" policies, mixed in with some policies furthering his white christian supremacist views.

Russia has basically run out of everything but has made enough seedy friends who will eventually ask for favors

China is fixated on Taiwan but really wouldn't say no to any territorial expansion, if anybody offered, or um, didn't happen to have much in the way of allies who were paying attention.

Our SecState is a little boy cosplaying as a diplomat, nobody with more than a handful of braincells is present in the white house, and the republican party is more intersted in what some trans person did at a swim meet or volleyball tournament, than they are what's going on in the world geopolitically...

Basically, everyone's busy looking at something else, so Pakistan and India shrugged and said "After all, why shouldn't we...have a war?"

It got drowned out because it happened today as well, but the US announced that they’re going to stop because Oman helped negotiate a ceasefire that will protect Red Sea shipping.

Uh, no. It meaningful war communication when dealing with states. A belligerent announcing targeted strikes, particularly as retaliation, is hoping to convey that they're avoiding strategic targets and, usually by the time of the announcement, that the shooting is done.