> I suppose one silver lining is people ordering less crap?

By government decree. What other decisions should government make on our behalf?

Levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce. Also, mandate schooling, mandate vaccinations, forbid polluting the environment, set clocks forward, and various other acts.

Governments exist so that we can coordinate doing things that individually we couldn't do or wouldn't wish to do. It's us.

The problem with the tariffs is not that they're decreed by the government that your fellow citizens elected, it's that they're counterproductive to the extent that they're causing a recession.

>There is a lot of discussion on Reddit on empty ports etc. It sounds quite scary.

Reddit is extremely biased toward being anti-Trump and anti-tariffs to a comical degree, so I would take anything written there with a grain of salt.

Yes, Reddit is biased. That said, they are posting numbers, pictures, facts etc, at least on this topic. Dismissing all those discussions and those with genuine concerns doesn't seem wise either

Yep, the empty ports reflect ships that set sail weeks ago. Expect slow / empty ports and effects of that to become more widespread in the USA in May.

Even if the situation was reversed tomorrow, ships cannot arrive until weeks later. I've seen "60 to 90 days" given, but I think this is time for the whole supply chain, not just port-to-port ship time.

And the situation won't reverse tomorrow. It's now at a place where neither US or Chinese leadership can change tactic without "losing face" badly.

This bad 2nd quarter is locked in. Likely much longer than that.

It’s worse. Even if the tariffs go away tomorrow (and Trump is currently indicating nothing of the sort) there will then be a frenzy as importers fight over the limited freight capacity. You should expect container prices to soar, the same way they did during COVID. No idea how long this will go on for.

The USA elected a president who promised to impose tariffs. So they're going to get tariffs. As the quote goes "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

As for China, I mentioned that it's now that they feel disrespected, and it's about "face".

That's why I'm sceptical of the USA leadership's claims that China is calling up now to negotiate trade, which China denies (1). Why would they call? The ships not arriving is the negotiating statement. That message has to first sink in, in clear terms. Which it should in May and June

1) https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/29/business/china-video-trum...

I don't understand this "saving face", disrespect logic. Whose "face" is being saved here, by digging in? Is face-saving (what does that even mean in global politics?) so much more important over the livelihoods of millions of people, global economy (and peace which depends on economy) etc? This whole thing is bizarre...

I think what China wants here is some kind of durable agreement that they can base plans on. What they (and unfortunately, we US folks as well) are getting right now is extremely unpredictable. The tariffs are on one week, they’re paused the next, they’re 145% tomorrow, they might be half the next day. Even official deals that Trump negotiated, like USMCA, have the half-life of Iodine-131. What’s the point of negotiating an agreement if it’ll be ripped up or ignored next week? You have to go into a negotiation like this with the understanding that you cause some pain or the deal won’t stick.

I also think China recognizes that Trump negotiations are largely about dominance and Trump’s ability to convey a narrative that he “out-negotiated” the other guy, rather than an attempt to get the optimal deal for the US. When you’re negotiating with someone like that, maintaining “face” (ie preserving your position of respect within the negotiation) isn’t some mysterious Chinese concept: it’s just addressing Trump on his own terms, ie understanding that he only respects strength.

> I don't understand this "saving face", disrespect logic.

It isn't logic, it's emotion.

"disrespectful" is a term that the Chinese officials have used to describe US officials statements (1). I'm not reasoning my way to that term, I'm noting that the Chinese are there.

That and "Bowing to a bully is like drinking poison to quench thirst" (2)

I agree with sibling comment that saving face is it's "addressing Trump on his own terms" but I wouldn't say it's "just" that. It's also universal human psychology to react defiantly, expressed in regional idioms.

I agree that it's bizarre that it ended up there, nevertheless this is the USA's "art of the deal" working out as well as it's going to. With China calling the bluff.

1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNUs9G0sCFc

2) https://www.mediaite.com/news/china-responds-to-trump-tariff...

I don't get the empty ports narrative.

Yes, there have been photos of empty ports. But there number of ships headed into the US hasn't fallen yet¹, and tax changes take a up to a few months to reflect on the arriving trans-continental traffic.

So, are those some ports specialized in short distance commerce? Maybe domestic commerce?

1 - They notoriously have recently started to leave half-full. What means they'll need less time at the ports by June. That shouldn't make a difference now.