The UK was the hardest hit by COVID, but it has recovered well.
Per-capita GDP has been rough in the UK post-brexit.
But compared to neighbours it's pretty close?
I was against Brexit, but I don't think the apocalyptic predictions have been borne out at all.
Agreed, this is the most likely outcome in the short term.
In the long term there are going to be unexpeted knock-on effects. Even a modest definancialization of the American economy makes it more robust to demographic changes and the end of the population-driven growth era. Lowered imports from abroad (especially china) and decreased consumption writ large means lower carbon footprint. Maintenance of airplanes getting more expensive means people fly less (already happening), again, lower carbon footprint.
It won’t cause the economy to collapse with alarms going off everywhere.
It will instead be a quiet, slow and sustained shrinking of the economy.