Re:AI 2027
by crazystar on Thursday April 03, 2025 @04:51PM
(#43575216)
47% now soo a coin toss
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Note the market resolves by:
> Resolution will be via a poll of Manifold moderators. If they're split on the issue, with anywhere from 30% to 70% YES votes, it'll resolve to the proportion of YES votes.
So you should really read it as “Will >30% of Manifold moderators in 2027 think the ‘predictions seem to have been roughly correct up until that point’?”
That’s a misreading of the phrase “proportion of YES votes”. If 30% of judges vote YES, then only 30% – not 100% – of the prediction’s market cap is awarded to those who bet YES. The remaining 70% of the market cap is awarded to those who bet NO.
The market correctly rewards those who bet NO in such a case. Therefore, bettors have no reason to bet YES if they really think NO.