The theory here is democrats on average are more educated, wealthier, and in more of a position to prove they are citizens. Don’t have an opinion on that. But it’s something I know many democrats around me have said.

We know factually that democrats rely on a strategy that involves importing illegal immigrants and making them look legal enough to vote.

The demographics of the parties have shifted quite a bit with Trump's second term. The Republicans lost much of their educated elite but made up for it by gaining a lot of the poor folks that have hitherto been the Democratic backbone and who are most hurt by voter ID.

Trump lost the $30k–$50k democraphic by 9 points in 2016, but turned around and won it by 6 points in 2024—a 15-point swing! Meanwhile he won the $100k–$200k and $200k+ demographics by ~2 percentage points in 2016, but lost it by 5+ points in 2024 even while winning the popular vote.

It's possible that this was a one-off and not a major permanent realignment, but it's definitely not as clear cut as it used to be.

Because of educational polarization and race depolarization, Democrats now overperform Republicans in low-turnout elections. It's been true in every cycle starting in 2018 (and in the special elections before that).