> It seems like this is a low point for Russia - a protracted hot war on what was previously its own turf.

That kind of “low point” is most of the history of the independent Russian Federation, given the first (1994-1996) and second (1999-2009) Chechen wars and the North Caucasus insurgency (2009-2017).

I dont disagree. The cold war has not gone well for the USSR and Russia. Thats why I think it is absurd to say it is winning.

There is this idea that the breakup of Russia and Ukraine was bloodless in 1991, but that a military response was inevitable from the petulant displeased Russian state. We managed to delay the fight, but it was kind of inevitable.

I don't think that is true at all, especially if the "we" is the west. This strikes me as some sort of savior complex.

How has NATO delayed bloodshed in Ukraine between 1991 and 2022?

At first, Ukraine stayed firmly rooted in Russia's economical orbit. It's the slow inevitable lean towards Western Europe that enraged Russia.

NATO had nothing to do with it. It's economical.