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Re: by Smylers on Thursday March 27, 2025 @12:02PM (#43495015)
That “gradual decline” is an artifact of your maths, in which you're gradually changing the weight of recent years.

Consider a sequence with an extreme drop-off: 100, 100, 100, 100, 40. Taking averages of all the numbers, then all but the first, all but the first 2, and so on, yields: 88, 85, 80, 70, 40. That might look like it includes a gradual decline, but clearly there's nothing gradual in the underlying data.

Re: by do_not_redeem on Thursday March 27, 2025 @12:15PM (#43495128)
Right you are, good catch. Here it is broken down by year then.

  year rank
  ---- ----
  2007   80
  2008   13
  2009    3
  2010    1
  2011    2
  2012    9
  2013   78
  2014   14
  2015  305
  2016  363
  2017    7
  2018   65
  2019   28
  2020    7
  2021  106
  2022  353
  2023   86
  2024   82
I still don't see a step change. 2022 was bad, but not as bad as that slump in 2015-2016.