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A comment on The Ethics of Spreading Life in the Cosmos. Parent comment

Re:The Ethics of Spreading Life in the Cosmos by grey-area on Wednesday March 26, 2025 @03:19AM (#43479652)
In this analogy the unknown is the number of sides on the dice (probability of life), we know there are an astonishingly large number of stars and planets that life could evolve on, so a very large number of throws, we just don’t know how hard it is for life to emerge.

I agree with you the odds are strongly in favour of us not being first or unique. I didn’t say we must be first but find it very unlikely given the numbers.

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Re:The Ethics of Spreading Life in the Cosmos by seba_dos1 on Wednesday March 26, 2025 @03:28AM (#43479695)
Yes, and if the probability of life turns out to be even more astonishingly small number, you may very well end up with six 10,000-sided dice :)

My intuition tells me it's not like that, but it's nothing but intuition.

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Re:The Ethics of Spreading Life in the Cosmos by grey-area on Wednesday March 26, 2025 @11:49AM (#43483521)
10,000 sided dice over 10^25 throws has a high probability of success for any given no.
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Re:The Ethics of Spreading Life in the Cosmos by seba_dos1 on Wednesday March 26, 2025 @03:27PM (#43486029)
But you've got six throws there.

It's the proportion that matters, not absolute numbers.

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