Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up."
by t-3 on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @12:08PM
(#43333889)
That's not how polls work though. A poll shows how a sample of people say they'll vote. An ideal poll would have the same proportions as the final popular vote count.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Re:An election forecast that's 50-50 is not "giving up."
by Spivak on Tuesday March 11, 2025 @01:10PM
(#43334721)
Thank you! Lordy it's crazy that this thread isn't distinguishing polls which are a measurement and the resulting prediction based on those polls.
If you polled 60%/40% yea/nay you wouldn't give the nays a 40% chance of winning. You need P(yeas > 50%) based on your observed measurement.