Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP

Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by criddell on Monday March 03, 2025 @03:47PM (#43246494)

There are easier ways. I'll write a poem and sell it to you for $50 trillion and you draw a picture and I'll buy it for $50 trillion from you. We could get this done today and bump GDP by $100 trillion.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by JumpCrisscross on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:05PM (#43246684)

> I'll write a poem and sell it to you for $50 trillion and you draw a picture and I'll buy it for $50 trillion from you. We could get this done today and bump GDP by $100 trillion

Nominally, yes. Real, no. (In practice, given the barter resemblance of the trade, there would be no impact.)

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by gitfan86 on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:44PM (#43247198)

Why is it real GDP when a government contractor makes a PDF report, but isn't real GDP when I make a poem?

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by sunnyps on Monday March 03, 2025 @05:03PM (#43247398)

Because money paid to the government contractor results in a person (persons?) getting paid along the way and then a large part of that flows into the real economy via consumption / spending.

In your $50 trillion poem example, no money can possibly flow into the real economy because you simply do not have $50 trillion to pay anyone - you're just describing a wash trade of a worthless $50 trillion IOU note not unlike a NFT or crypto memecoin. Best case is that the poem is worth something non-negative.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by zellyn on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:48PM (#43247234)

That's the point.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by JumpCrisscross on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:49PM (#43247250)

GDPNow tracks real GDP.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by zellyn on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:54PM (#43247297)

Ah, thanks! Interesting. How does it know which is Real and which is poems?

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by insane_dreamer on Tuesday March 04, 2025 @03:37PM (#43259582)

Ask DOGE ;)

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by saulpw on Monday March 03, 2025 @03:57PM (#43246605)

Sales or income tax will be a problem though.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by criddell on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:03PM (#43246671)

True. We'll probably have to make the poem and picture about Jesus and do it through our new church in New Hampshire.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by onlyrealcuzzo on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:03PM (#43246665)

Not if you sell in a state without income tax. And I imagine someone creative can probably find ways to make this not classify as income.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by 0cf8612b2e1e on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:13PM (#43246813)

Solve the deficit at the same time!

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by arunabha on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:20PM (#43246902)

I hear the standard practice is to have the IP of the poem owned by a foreign entity(Ireland is pretty popular) and then for the US entity to pay a royalty of $50 trillion to the foreign entity so that the net revenue in the US is zero.

I believe it has it's own name - The double Irish.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by ummonk on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:29PM (#43247010)

Yeah but then that only contributes to the GDP of Ireland, not the US.

Not coincidentally, Ireland has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by lotsofpulp on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:45PM (#43247208)

This only works within the European Union because the EU rules allow it.

It would not work between the US and Ireland.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by lotsofpulp on Monday March 03, 2025 @03:58PM (#43246612)

https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-04/GDP-Education-by-BE...

>Who calculates GDP?

>Economists at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate GDP using thousands of data points gathered by other federal agencies and some private data collectors.

I presume these economists would ignore outliers such as that example, especially ones that would result in unrealistic sales tax or other tax liabilities.

They have a spreadsheet showing sources here:

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#:~:text=...

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by gruez on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:21PM (#43246923)

I doubt this sort of chicanery actually happens, or would actually work.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by bugglebeetle on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:23PM (#43246935)

I see you’ve never heard of the market for fine art.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by gruez on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:45PM (#43247202)

You might not agree that a blank canvas is a $100k "art piece", but assuming both parties are sincere, what's the issue? It's not really any different than some luxury brand selling a $50 (being really generous here) t-shirt for $500.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by sadeshmukh on Monday March 03, 2025 @09:16PM (#43249457)

Their worth is inflated and their whole suite of same artist work increases in value.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by frumper on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:35PM (#43247092)

That's great for money laundering, but you'd have to pay taxes on it. Good luck.

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by criddell on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:51PM (#43247270)

Unless you leave it in some warehouse by the airport.

> https://hyperallergic.com/51913/the-shadowy-world-of-art-in-...

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by lostmsu on Monday March 03, 2025 @10:53PM (#43250086)

But then it would not contribute to US GDP, would it?

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Re:Atlanta Fed predicts -2.8% GDP by edm0nd on Monday March 03, 2025 @04:31PM (#43247033)

also NFTs

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