I would agree with you were it not for the fact that I'm personally investing my time into a FLOSS project to make sure the growth does not slow down by making “tomorrow NOT like today”, but gets a kick in the butt once we reach the 50% deployment inflection point instead. Stay tuned ;-)
Whatever you're cooking up, I wish you luck! My life would be significantly easier if I could just completely ignore one network protocol, be that v4 or v6. So far I have mostly just ignored v6 and everything I do uses v4, but I have no strong preference (except that v4 addresses fit in my brain while v6 addresses do not, which is honestly a not-insignificant reason why v6 is hard)
Here's to hoping, but I agree one way or another one stack needs to go :-)
BTW: Contact info is in my profile if anyone wants the inside scoop. The project just isn't fully ready for public launch yet, but we're well into the cooking.
> Adoption will slow down and my guess is that we'll be stuck with a long tail forever, and only time will tell if that happens at 50% adoption or 90% adoption.
But that long tail will probably look like figure 4 of that link, only reversed: IPv4 running mostly as tunnels over a core IPv6 network. Some large cellphone networks are already at that stage, using things like 464XLAT to run IPv4 with NAT over an IPv6 network.
Adoption will slow down and my guess is that we'll be stuck with a long tail forever, and only time will tell if that happens at 50% adoption or 90% adoption.