Given recent trends, the US will run headlong into the problem of political collapse long before China runs into a demographic collapse.

That problem is also ever-present for China. States like China never look like they are about to collapse until they do.

That's true of all states. The collapse only sets in when enough people start believing it's about to happen - and once this threshold is crossed, it happens in an instant.

Both JP and SKR increased gdp/productivity ~10-20x when they had <2 TFR by increasing % of workforce to skilled/tertiary (advanced economies have skilled workforce approaching 70/80%). PRC is at ~20% while adding more skilled workforce than roughly OECD combined. Structurally China will add more just STEM in next 20 years than US projected to increase population, i.e. if every US newborn and immigrant (assuming current levels) are STEM, US will merely match PRC STEM generation. PRC also adding 80m other tertiary or vocational skilled ontop of that. For strategic competition, the structural demographic trend you should compare is PRC peaking at roughly 2x-3x US skilled workers who will be in workforce for 50+ years, i.e. greatest high skill demographic divident in recorded history. Meanwhile they'll be shedding 100s of millions of low productive workers. Imagine PRC workforce profile adding 5 japans and losing 3 nigerias. Another caveat being about 200m of population decline will be inefficient farming households that can be effectively replaced with 20m modern ag workers. Or 600m low productive (bottom 2 quantiles who are undereducated / old / left behind by modernization) contributes to like 5% of GDP, i.e. their consumption / productivity is comparable to a few 10s million of high value workers. Then consider PRC is also adding more industrial robotics / automation than RoW combined. The question is whether US can compete with PRC with multiple times more skilled talent and larger industrial base than they have now, both increasing at rates that US is structurally unable to close gap on for decades short of AGI / von neumann machine hailmary (which granted is a real possiblity, but then we're also in a world where PRC is spitting out incubated humans).

Maybe, but if you’re allocating all that resource in STEM, where do the essential trades (carpenters, plumbers, construction in general) come from? Without immigration, It’s a finite resource pool.

The analysis of losing unproductive workers and replacing them with highly skilled STEM graduates seems like a recipe for upset when a healthy economy needs more than just STEM.

STEM is still "just" 1/4 of workforce. Another 1/2 is going to be in other tertiary or vocational including trades. The side benefit of STEM overcapacity is you can drive skilled labour costs down in highvalue/strategic sectors, and the flame outs can do other shit i.e. foreign doctors driving Ubers in the States. China will have STEMs who aren't "good enough" doing banal work too. Except you can get upskilled people to work low skilled jobs and not vice versa, i.e. US isn't going to get glut of humanity degrees to fill fabs.

Will there be as many cheap workers as last couple decades pouring 100 years worth of US concrete in 3? No, hence why all the upfront build infra investment right now, while blue collar still somewhat plentiful and cheap. Meanwhile, tons of resources pouring into automation / humanoid robots, because at PRC scale, IMO can't really immigrate/migrant worker way out of issue. Not saying it's not possible, see meme of circle around Asia where 50% of humans live. There's likely still going to be a lot of accessible cheap bodies around if culture willing to tolerate it.

The broader picture is big % (like 30%+) of PRC workforce has been (and will be until they die) bluntly... net drag. There were always 100s of millions of farming households (functionally a jobs program) and informal workers spinning wheels doing shit all. All the labourers and workers pouring concrete and building factories were only ever fraction of PRC workforce. PRC losing the fraction that doesn't do much and replacing it with a smaller fraction that does a lot, and when aggregate # of workers that does a lot is 2x-3x more than peers (vs past where peers had orders of magnitude more skilled than PRC), then that's much better net position for future when competing on high tech / high value. Another added benefit of not having 100s of millions of excess mouth to feed and fuel and future PRC demographics is also going to enable strategic autarky like US. IMO PRC "finite" still too much. There are a lot of benefits to where PRC demographics is trending within our lifetimes. Of course if they don't figure out TFR in 30-40 years things will get real bad in 60-70 years, but that's time frame too distant to extrapolate.

such a shift in demographics will bring a lot of difficult societal problems that come with emerging Middle Class who will want more housing and more freedoms

Social problems mostly 4:2:1 depedency ratios, i.e. elder care. Hence PRC pouring a lot of resource into this sector, but TBH unless automation catches up, they're just going to follow JP model - old people are going to be minimally taken care of, and simply die unceremoniously while most of workforce busy competing to pay attention. Helps that cohort is part of the incredibly poor with high savings rate, i.e. they are expected to take care of themselves and it doesn't take much too for the state to take care of them - perks of old before rich is old don't have rich expectations. Overall PRC is still resourced to increase QoL among poor old vs west trying to sustain onerous but expected social nets for rich old.

IMO housing will sort itself out if you consider reverse of 4:2:1 is 4 households / wealth transfers to the 1. Every married couple and their kids eventually has access to ~4-8+ housing units. Hence IMO even TFR will sort itself out once housing pressure / availability disspates by virtue demand decreasing due to less people. Of course transition can be very difficult/painful/messy, i.e. demand in T1/2/3 cities still going to be high, a lot of freed up housing is going to be rural, like all the abandoned villages in JP. Maybe remote work + cottage culture will finally pick up in PRC once most families inherit some rural land to chill on. TBH I can imagine PRC life being incredibly more relaxed once less people compete for resources.

As for freedoms, depends on which kind. I think most will be satiated with increased material prosperity / fully automated luxury communism meme conveniences. There's plenty of Chinese diasphora in the west jaded with western political process, and I wager that trend with continue with how things are progressing. Plenty of international students with first hand experience become more pro CCP. Ultimately people are going to decide if they want freedom to talk shit about unresponsive governments that get nothing done or crusing along in their self driving cars enabled by surveillance state.

And let's not pretend immigration driven demographic growth strategies are not bringing their share of social problems... in fact it's probably one of the largest sources of domestic instability being interrogated by such countries right now.

I've been all over China and it's true current generations are only all too happy to be rich and quite often obscenely rich.

They have very real understanding that all of it could be unilaterally taken away by the state at any time, so even if they flash their wealth they keep their mouths shut. At the same time many do buy in to state propoganda.

But what of their children who are born into comfort of middle class and are less materialistic and willing to fight to justice?

>keep their mouths shut

As they should, particularly the obscene rich who could not have possibly gotten obscenely rich without shady sheningans that _should_ get a CCDI visit. There's tacit understanding that phase of wealth accumulation is mostly over, and if you lie low, keep you mouth shut, behave, you can likely live comfortably but quietly enjoying the misbegotten gains from being fortunate beneficiary of "let some get rich first" period.

>willing to fight to justice

Over what? Peak covid19 lockdown brought a few white paper protestors and negligible shanghai libtard youths coming to the streets. IMO they're unlikely to experience that tier of adversity short of another blackswan event. Many of them are guanxied into comfy enough work opportunities with their parents nest eggs to coast on eventually. I don't really see any particuarly incendiary justice issues to fight over from this cohort except feminists/LGBT and related identity politics, but society skews old and conservative, those cohorts losing fight due to demographics for a long time regardless. They'll be even more quiet, because society is overwhelmingly indifferent to them. Which is not to say against, just not proactively endorse. And with cultural shift west is trending, there isn't exactly going to be a liberal model to follow without rest of country mocking them. Baizuo is a dying breed, west is increasingly not a place to emulate, especially when many international students and diasphora with experience in west is getting CCP pilled after experiencing western dysfunction, exacerbated by anti PRC sentiment.

Everyone else is going to be too busy with the grind like SKR and JP trying to fight for scraps with academic/skilled workforce inflation/overcapacity and eventually accept their lot in life for being statistically mediocre. This is probably where the real discontent will swell, fighting for their share of more materialism. And IMO that's partly why CCP focus very hard to indigenize everything and embrace material model (i.e. not pure profit) of industry - they want be able to drive cost of everything down so masses can buy $20,000 cars that's comparable to a $60,000 car - there's still a lot of headroom of satiating masses with nice things.

fair