Re:The Zizians and the Rationalist Death Cult
by barnabee on Sunday February 02, 2025 @11:32AM
(#42909668)
> A good model can tell you that a hurricane might hit Tampa but won't hit New Orleans
On the other hand we have no model to predict that hurricane a year in advance and tell us which city it’ll hit.
Yet these people believe they can rationalise about far more unpredictable events far further in the future.
That is, I agree that they completely ignore the point at which uncertainties utterly dominate any calculation you might try to do and yet continue to calculate to a point of absurdity.
On the other hand we have no model to predict that hurricane a year in advance and tell us which city it’ll hit.
Yet these people believe they can rationalise about far more unpredictable events far further in the future.
That is, I agree that they completely ignore the point at which uncertainties utterly dominate any calculation you might try to do and yet continue to calculate to a point of absurdity.