The idea that someone can easily replicate an OpenAI model based simply on OpenAI outputs is, I’d argue, immeasurably worse for OpenAI’s valuation than the idea that someone happened to come up with a few innovations that leapfrogged OpenAI.

The latter could be a one time thing, and/or OpenAi Could still use their financial might to leverage those innovations and get even better with them.

However, the former destroys their business model and no amount of intelligence and innovation from OpenAI protects them from being copied at a fraction of the cost.

> Yes, well the narrative that rocked the stock market is different.

How do you know this?

> If the narrative is actually that DeepSeek can only reach whatever heights OpenAI has already gotten to with some new tricks, then markets will probably refocus on OpenAI's innovations and price things accordingly

Why? If every innovation OpenAI is trying to keep as secret sauce becomes commoditized quickly and cheaply, then why would markets care about any innovations they have? They will be unable to monetize them.

Couldn't OpenAI just put in their license that training off OpenAi output is not allowed? With shibboleth or API logs, this could be verifiable.

Why would it matter when Chinese deepseek is not going to abide by such rules or be forced to and will release their model open weights so anyone anywhere can host it?

Also, scraping most of the websites they scrape is also not allowed, they do it anyways

If they can make the US and Europe block the use of Deepseek and derivatives, they would be able to protect most of their market.