News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Nuclear fusion: it's time for a reality check by PaulHoule on Wednesday January 29, 2025 @09:49AM (#42865494)
"Clean" is arguable for fusion.

A fusion reactor is going to create and consume large quantities of tritium, which is difficult to control because it is an isotope of hydrogen and hydrogen can go right through metals. It might not really be a problem but it is always going to be in the paper that somebody detected tritium around a reactor.

Also, because fusion reactors produce large quantities of neutrons, you could put U238 or Th232 into the blanket and breed either Pu239 or U233. Back in the 1980s some engineers thought that a hybrid fusion-fission system could have better economics that either alone if you used the bred fuel in thermal reactors. Those materials could just as well be used to make bombs, although, unlike a fast breeder cycle, a fusion reactor doesn't require plutonium processing technology in order to work.

---

As for solar and wind being "cheap" don't believe the hype. I mean, it is cheap if you don't mind that it is only available when the sun shines and when the wind blows. You see estimates for solar + storage that are deceptive and thought-stopping like Case 17 of [1] (an hour and a half of storage is significant, but it is not comparable to the 24 hour service that fossil fuels and nuclear can provide.)

I haven't seen a detailed analysis of the generation + transmission + storage costs of a 100% renewable system published in the last decade. If you try a back of the envelope calculation it usually winds up worse than Case 9 from that report, except that Case 9 is optimistic because (so far) it always costs a lot more than you estimate to build a nuclear plant. [2]

[1] https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/powerplants/capitalcost...

[2] to get some sense of how bad the problem is you need: (a) to get through the night (12 hours of storage? still might beat AP1000...) and (b) get through extended periods of bad weather (2 weeks of storage?) and (c) get through the winter (overbuild solar 2-3x? otherwise 6 months of storage?)

Re:Nuclear fusion: it's time for a reality check by pfdietz on Wednesday January 29, 2025 @11:12PM (#42874766)
Handling the general problem is made much easier with e-fuels to handle very long term storage and rare outages. The cost can be estimated and isn't that high, even if the round trip efficiency of storage with e-fuels is not very good.

BTW, the battery cost estimates there in that link seem very high, not reflecting the recent collapse in LFP prices from China.

Re:Nuclear fusion: it's time for a reality check by ZeroGravitas on Thursday January 30, 2025 @04:43AM (#42876364)
> I haven't seen a detailed analysis of the generation + transmission + storage costs of a 100% renewable system published in the last decade.

Australia updates their GenCost every year, which feeds into their Integrated System Plan. The draft of this year's is up for public comments:

https://www.csiro.au/en/research/technology-space/energy/gen...

> In this report, where we make a comparison between the costs of variable renewables such as solar PV and wind and the costs of other technologies we include the cost of firming those renewables which we call integration costs. These are the additional costs of ensuring supply is reliable when using intermittent energy sources. These integration costs are itemised in the report and include storage, transmission, system security and spilled energy

Re:Nuclear fusion: it's time for a reality check by ViewTrick1002 on Thursday January 30, 2025 @07:13AM (#42877051)
Here's a case study for Denmark:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192...

About the worst you can find in terms of small geographical area and having to deal with both Dunkelflautes and arctic conditions spilling south which often leads to -5C to -15C and near zero wind.

Of course excluding that storage is plummeting in price with the latest Chinese auctions with bids submitted December 2024 landing on $62/kWh installed and serviced for 20 years.

https://www.ess-news.com/2025/01/15/chinas-cgn-new-energy-an...

Re:Nuclear fusion: it's time for a reality check by ashoeafoot on Friday January 31, 2025 @03:51AM (#42885833)
Wind is also lousy in any extreme climate change event (Storms)that hits the coast. You basically have to rebuild it faster than its destroyed
Re:Nuclear fusion: it's time for a reality check by pfdietz on Sunday February 02, 2025 @12:13PM (#42909963)
Peak winds in a tropical storm are isolated to a very small zone near the center. In Hurricane Camille, the peak winds were in a region only a bit larger than a very large tornado.