Re:Nvidia, ASML Plunge as DeepSeek Triggers Tech Stock Selloff
by teleforce on Tuesday January 28, 2025 @07:22PM
(#42859925)
>If training and inference just got 40x more efficient
The jury is still out on how much improvement DeepSeek made in terms of training and inference compute efficiency, but personally I think 10x is probably the actual improvement that's being made
But in business/engineering/manufacturing/etc if you have 10x more efficiency, you're basically going to obliterate the competitions
>output quality has ceased to be compute-bound
You raised an interesting conjecture and it seems that it's very likely the case.
I know that it's not even a full two years that ChatGPT-4 has been released but it seems that it take OpenAI a very long time to release ChatGPT-5. Is it because they're taking their own sweet time to release the software not unlike GIMP, or they genuinely cannot justify the improvement to jump from 4 to 5? This stagnation however, has allowed others to catch up. Now based on DeekSeek claims, anyone can has their own ChatGPT-4 under their desk with Nvidia project Digits mini PCs. For running DeepSeek, 4 units mini PCs will be more than enough of 4 PFLOPS and cost only USD12K [1]. Let say on average one subcriber user pays OpenAI monthly payment of USD$10, for 1000 persons organization it will be $USD10K, and the investment practically pays for itself within a month, and no data ever leave the organization since it's a private cloud!
For training similar system to ChatGPT-4 based on DeepSeeks claims, a few millions USD$ is more than enough. Apparently, OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle just announced USD$500 Billions joint venture to bring the AI forward with the new announced Stargate AI project but that's 10,000x money [2],[3]. But the elephant in the room question is that, can they even get 10x quality improvement of the existing ChatGPT-4. I really seriously doubt it.
[1] NVIDIA Puts Grace Blackwell on Every Desk and at Every AI Developer’s Fingertips:
The jury is still out on how much improvement DeepSeek made in terms of training and inference compute efficiency, but personally I think 10x is probably the actual improvement that's being made
But in business/engineering/manufacturing/etc if you have 10x more efficiency, you're basically going to obliterate the competitions
>output quality has ceased to be compute-bound
You raised an interesting conjecture and it seems that it's very likely the case.
I know that it's not even a full two years that ChatGPT-4 has been released but it seems that it take OpenAI a very long time to release ChatGPT-5. Is it because they're taking their own sweet time to release the software not unlike GIMP, or they genuinely cannot justify the improvement to jump from 4 to 5? This stagnation however, has allowed others to catch up. Now based on DeekSeek claims, anyone can has their own ChatGPT-4 under their desk with Nvidia project Digits mini PCs. For running DeepSeek, 4 units mini PCs will be more than enough of 4 PFLOPS and cost only USD12K [1]. Let say on average one subcriber user pays OpenAI monthly payment of USD$10, for 1000 persons organization it will be $USD10K, and the investment practically pays for itself within a month, and no data ever leave the organization since it's a private cloud!
For training similar system to ChatGPT-4 based on DeepSeeks claims, a few millions USD$ is more than enough. Apparently, OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle just announced USD$500 Billions joint venture to bring the AI forward with the new announced Stargate AI project but that's 10,000x money [2],[3]. But the elephant in the room question is that, can they even get 10x quality improvement of the existing ChatGPT-4. I really seriously doubt it.
[1] NVIDIA Puts Grace Blackwell on Every Desk and at Every AI Developer’s Fingertips:
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-puts-grace-blackwe...
[2] Trump unveils $500bn Stargate AI project between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/21/trump-ai-joi...
[3] Announcing The Stargate Project:
https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/