You don't need external competition to have NVDA correct. All it takes is for one or more of the big customers to say they don't need as many GPUs for any reason. It could be their in house efforts are 'good enough', or that the new models are more efficient and take less compute, or their shareholders are done letting them spend like drunken sailors. NVDAs stock was/is priced for perfection and any sort of market or margin contraction will cause the party to stop.

The danger for NVDA is their margins are so large right now, there is a ton of money chasing them not just from their typical competition like AMD, but from their own customers.

While we can bet on "AMD are too sclerotic to fix their drivers even if it's an existential threat to the company", I don't think we can bet on "if we deny technology to China they won't try to copy it anyway".

I agree.

Need to find this company and buy its stock when it is still early.

AMD is actively working to recreate CUDA. "Haven't succeeded yet" is very different from having failed, and they're certainly not giving up.

Intel's fab is in trouble, but that's not the relevant part of Intel for this. They get a CUDA competitor going with GPUs built on TSMC and they're off to the races. Also, Intel's fab might very well get bailed out by the government and in the process leave them with more resources to dedicate to this.

Then you have Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, any one of which have the resources to do this and they all have a reason to try.

Which isn't even considering what happens if they team up. Suppose AMD is useless at software but Google isn't and then Google does the software and releases it to the public because they're tired of paying Nvidia's margins. Suppose the whole rest of the industry gets behind an open standard.

A lot of things can happen and there's a lot of money to make them happen.