News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on CIA Now Favors Lab Leak Theory to Explain Covid's Origins. Parent comment

Re:CIA Now Favors Lab Leak Theory to Explain Covid's Origins by wongarsu on Saturday January 25, 2025 @04:50PM (#42825215)
There was also no evidence against it. If there is neither solid evidence for nor against something I find it perfectly reasonable to apply the balance of probabilities. At least as long as you qualify your statement with a "probably".

And with the main competing theory (covid spreading from a wet market in a city that contains a biolab) also being consistent with the hypothesis that it was an accidental lab leak, to me the balance of probabilities always seemed to favor the lab leak hypothesis.

Yet saying that Covid probably originated from a lab leak was once branded as dangerous misinformation, with seemingly no evidence to support that claim

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:CIA Now Favors Lab Leak Theory to Explain Covid's Origins by suzumer on Saturday January 25, 2025 @05:14PM (#42825429)
At the time, there was essentially a 50/50 chance it was a lab leak or from a wet market. The issue with saying it was a lab leak at that time is that you are essentially gambling the US's relationship with China should it come out that it was a from a wet market. Also, a lot of the discussion regarding the lab leak theory early on seemed to me like it wouldn't be sated even if the US presented sufficient evidence that it was from a wet market.
[ Parent | on HN ]