I'm having a hard time understanding exactly what concrete outcome you are predicting based on your post. Are you predicting a 1:0.9 ratio? 1:0.001? 1:1.1?
(I think we'll see a big rise in viral marketing, shill and semi-shill reviewing (Klout, amazon's programme where they send products to highly rated reviewers), product placement and sponsored content (the my little pony cartoons; mad men with jack daniels; akb0048), which will blur the line between advertising and content creation. But I think outright ads will collapse)
To restate: I bet $1 that the ratio of total ad revenue (not including product placement revenue) to GDP will be substantially greater than 10% of what it is today.
Hope we're able to track each other down in 30 years, love to see how it turns out!
> Facebook not only is on course to go bust but will take the rest of the ad-supported Web with it.
Perhaps that's just a juicy opening line to draw people in to the article - but it sure sounds like predicting a demise to me.
Some of the things the article says are reasonable - but I wouldn't bet a dollar on facebook going bust and taking the entire ad-supported web with it.
He is. Of Facebook.
Facebook is not cheap to run. If revenues fall and costs do not ...
The point is that, from an advertiser's point of view, most of that money is wasted. Insofar as they can target ads and pay less for them, they will.
That $600 billion is not going to transfer on a 1:1 basis into the internet advertising market.