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Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by ZeroGravitas on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @11:15AM (#42699130)
Luckily for Tesla their share price seems to have been disconnected from car sales for a long time.

But will it continue as a meme stock? Will it pivot into AI? Or just suddenly collapse in price one day?

Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by rusty_venture on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @11:57AM (#42699997)
IMO it's pretty obvious it's being built up for short sellers to have a banner day. I'm guessing the hype bubble will burst sometime after Jan 20 when EV credits are slashed and FSD and the stupid 2-seater with no charging port mysteriously fail to materialize.
Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by saturn8601 on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @01:20PM (#42701454)
This crying wolf has been going on for 10 years. It may happen one day but your comment sounds like a broken record. I can find your same commend posted an ungodly amount of times on /r/realtesla archives.
Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by toss1 on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @11:43AM (#42699730)
Even after losing 16% in a month, falling from a high of $480+ to $405, the PE ratio is still about 111X. Even in a period of near record-high overall market valuations of 26X [1] not seen in at least decades, even before the Dotcom boom/bust, this is an outrageous valuation. Tesla would need to either fall to about $100/share or more than quadruple earnings just to get down to this historically aberrant high of PE~26X.

Considering their now-established history of failure to deliver, the failure of the Cybertruck to catch on, and Musk's authoritarian behavior alienating most customers for his EVs, the prospects for a massive sustainable earnings increase are poor at best. Add onto that an economy that has been excellent for four years and will be difficult to sustain, especially with the new administration likely to undermine it with ill-advised scattershot tariffs and deportations, strong growth seems unlikely. I'd consider yourself very lucky if you had a position that you managed to sell in early December. I certainly wouldn't be buying any soon, but shorting meme stocks is dangerous (even if your thesis is correct, short-term motions can get you stopped out with a big loss before realizing profits).

[0] https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/

[1] https://worldperatio.com/area/united-states/

Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by rusty_venture on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @11:59AM (#42700025)
> short-term motions can get you stopped out with a big loss before realizing profits

Can you elaborate on that a little? How does that happen?

Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by toss1 on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @02:27PM (#42702476)
Not a finance guy, but mu understanding is that shorting can have unlimited losses — you are borrowing an amount of stock at Price $X and selling it at the market price, say 100 shares of TSLA at $400 this week. You are betting that the stock price will go down, and you'll be able to buy it back and repay the 100 shares of stock at perhaps $200/share, pocketing the difference.

BUT, and this is a big BUT, if the price goes up in the meantime, your position goes negative, e.g., if it goes to $800, you are looking at a $40,000 loss. If it goes sufficiently negative that it approaches the point where the other assets at your broker cannot cover such a loss, you will be automatically sold out of your position at a loss. This means the broker will use the other assets in your account to automatically purchase TSLA shares and return them to the loaning party, all at market price.

When there is a large short interest in a stock, this can happen simultaneously all over the market, driving the price to insane levels, as every short must cover their position. This is called a "Short Squeeze". Even if the shorts were right in the end, they all lost. This happened with Porsche a decade ago, driving it's price well over $1000, when it had been $80, and more recently with Gamestop.

There are a LOT more better explanations than mine out there, or maybe some actual finance market guys/gals can weigh in. Here's one [0]. In any case, I hope this helps.

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100913/basic...

Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by positr0n on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @03:35PM (#42703469)
Margin call

You short 10 shares at $400 and you have $4500 in your account.

The stock is wildly swinging around and temporarily goes up to $440/share.

Your position would cost $4400 and you only have $4500 in your account, so your broker says "oh no! If TSLA goes up a little more we might never get our money back from this customer" so they liquidate your position while they still can.

Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by misja111 on Tuesday January 14, 2025 @04:10PM (#42703905)
Part of the Tesla share price are the high hopes about their self-driving taxi plan. With Musk in the Trump government, the expectation is that regulations will be easier on Tesla to get those self-driving cars on the road.
Re:Tesla Sales Are Tanking in Europe by duflotsam on Wednesday January 15, 2025 @11:33AM (#42713124)
Regulations aren't the obstacle. The whole point of robotaxis is to not have to hire a driver. Waymo has the technology to do that, but Tesla does not and doesn't seem especially close to it.