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A comment on Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance").

Re:Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current... by nathan_young on Wednesday January 08, 2025 @05:01AM (#42632652)
Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned: - P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5 - P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1
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