Re:What would it take for Bitcoin to fail?
by enether on Sunday December 29, 2024 @09:28AM
(#42540174)
I strongly disagree with you painting one of its main value props as shady/illegal, but your overall point is good.
The survival strategy works.
I think for us to really know what would it take to fail, would require really knowing what use cases it is fulfilling as a tool. We can then reason how sticky and how deep of a moat it has in those use cases.
I believe the main use case it serves is as a borderless permissionless bearer asset store of value that’s a good diversifier from the system - like gold.
If we agree that use case powers
eg 80% of its market cap value, then we can reason that it’s unlikely to go away because the value network effect is incredibly hard to build again - it’s time dependent and path dependent
If we, for whatever reason I disagree with, say that 80% of its value comes from the ability to evade taxes and launder money - then some 10x better alternative like Monero would very quickly take over as the preferred tool of choice and therefore kill Bitcoin
The survival strategy works.
I think for us to really know what would it take to fail, would require really knowing what use cases it is fulfilling as a tool. We can then reason how sticky and how deep of a moat it has in those use cases.
I believe the main use case it serves is as a borderless permissionless bearer asset store of value that’s a good diversifier from the system - like gold.
If we agree that use case powers eg 80% of its market cap value, then we can reason that it’s unlikely to go away because the value network effect is incredibly hard to build again - it’s time dependent and path dependent
If we, for whatever reason I disagree with, say that 80% of its value comes from the ability to evade taxes and launder money - then some 10x better alternative like Monero would very quickly take over as the preferred tool of choice and therefore kill Bitcoin