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Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK on Sunday December 15, 2024 @11:03AM (#42424123)
Followed your advice. Invested in SP500 every slide of the game, irrespective of the news (with 10x leverage).

Lost 52%.

Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by wat10000 on Sunday December 15, 2024 @11:13AM (#42424189)
The S&P 500 is down less than 1% below its all-time high. It’s mathematically impossible to lose 52% following that advice.

I think “with 10% leverage” deserves a lot more than a parenthetical here.

Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK on Sunday December 15, 2024 @11:23AM (#42424268)
Try it yourself, the game is not randomized. You should receive exactly the same result.
Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by TeaBrain on Sunday December 15, 2024 @03:25PM (#42425726)
If fully invested in just the S&P 500 with 10x leverage, it seems less mathematically possible to have lost just 52% unless it was an very short time horizon. If fully invested, 5% decrease in the value of the S&P 500, with 10x leverage, would lead to a 50% fund draw down, given no margin call during the 5% S&P draw down. In most years, the S&P experiences at least one short-term draw down off the years peak of at least 10%, which would lead to a complete loss of capital, given that they hadn't already experienced a margin call on the previously 10x levered assets, which would now be levered higher given a loss in the capital base.
Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by ac29 on Sunday December 15, 2024 @11:17AM (#42424220)
If the days selected were purely random, investing in SP500 would be wise (though not with 10x leverage).

In this experiment only 1/3 of days were random, with another third in employment report days and the last third in fed announcement days.

When I did this with -10x SP500 every day the result was a +36% return, which is surely not what you would expect if the trading days were purely random.

Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by lizzas on Monday December 16, 2024 @08:16AM (#42430682)
Is there a strategy here?
Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by Rexxar on Sunday December 15, 2024 @01:06PM (#42424872)
10x leverage is just crazy for individual stock investment. The lesson you should learn from this is not "don't invest SP500" but "don't use 10x leverage".
Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by lizzas on Sunday December 15, 2024 @05:19PM (#42426371)
Get a better broker :-) my SP50 (yes 50, dont ask!) index is doing alwite.
Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK on Monday December 16, 2024 @03:18PM (#42434949)
Get a better reading comprehension tutor.