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A comment on When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm Partners. Parent comment

Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by cabby on Sunday December 15, 2024 @07:07AM (#42423005)
The market isn't some kind of oracle. It's driven by sentiment.

And the bond market controls rates.

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Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by ac29 on Sunday December 15, 2024 @11:29AM (#42424311)
The bond market controls rates, but the fed sets the floor.

For example, if you believe we would had decades of a near zero federal funds rate, you might be willing to accept a 2% yield on a 30 year bond. But if you thought the long term federal funds rate was going to be 2%, you might want 4% or more on the long bond.

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Re:When a Crystal Ball Isn't Enough to Make You Rich – Elm P... by dave333 on Monday December 16, 2024 @05:49AM (#42429868)
The fed follows the market rates - their control is an illusion.

https://www.elliottwave.com/articles/fed-rate-cut-interest-r...

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